International organisations need to be prepared for the impact of shifting geopolitical dynamics centered around significant changes in US tariff policy during 2025. The latest political risk index by Willis warns that countries’ national security alignments have become central to risk management and long-term resilience for globally active businesses.

The report – Mapping the new geopolitics of tariff deals – reveals how the US is requiring trading partners to align with its national security interests or face punitive economic barriers. Through a series of maps, the report attempts to build a picture of the new trade landscape that will emerge as a result.

Drawing on research from Oxford Analytica’s country experts, the report finds that tariff deals are building a ‘moat’ around the West. Many tariff deals require signatories to align with US national security policies on key issues, most frequently export controls (included in 13 deals) followed by supply chain security (10 deals), enhanced rules of origin and trans-shipment monitoring. While these measures will take time to be implemented, companies may increasingly find it difficult to adapt to trade barriers by re-routing supply chains.

There are also signs of increased East-West geopolitical competition, and while many countries have agreed to enforce US export controls to secure deal terms, others such as Brazil, India and South Africa have yet to sign deals. This makes their future alignment uncertain, which could have significant consequences for foreign companies operating in these countries.

The study also suggests that the West is losing the contest for influence in Africa. With the non-renewal of key trade preferences and reductions in US aid, many African countries appear to be realigning towards Russia and other non-Western partners – a trend which Willis says has major implications for companies’ frontier-market strategies.

Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, said: “Companies have been astonishingly adept at adjusting their supply chains to fast-changing tariff rates. But companies also need to manage the geopolitics of tariffs. Our latest research highlights how tariffs can no longer be treated as a compliance or operational issue but need to be embedded at the core of strategic planning.”

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