The global credit and political risk insurance market delivered another strong year of growth and performance in 2025, according to Howden Re’s credit and political risk insurance team, which said disciplined underwriting and resilient demand continued to distinguish the sector from broader commercial lines.

Phil Bonner, managing director, global specialty treaty, Howden Re, said 2025 was defined by “a rare combination of strong growth, disciplined underwriting and sustained outperformance” across the CPRI market.

“Elevated demand from banks and corporates was largely matched by increased capacity, allowing incumbents and new entrants to expand participation without undermining technical standards,” he added.

“Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, claims experience remained stable with pricing easing only gradually and underwriting rigour continuing to distinguish CPRI from broader commercial lines.”

The firm said supply and demand remained broadly balanced, with higher client uptake met by a corresponding rise in capacity, while a focus on high-quality risks led to pockets of overcapacity and measured pricing reductions, constrained by conservative underwriting and structural supply limitations.

Incumbents increased line sizes and new entrants absorbed elevated demand from banks and corporates, although in some areas demand continued to exceed available capacity, it said.

Available data indicate relative outperformance. In the US, credit, surety and fidelity (a reasonable proxy for the global CPRI market) grew by 10% in the first half of 2025, compared with 5% for major US commercial lines. The incurred loss ratio was 26%, versus 57% for major commercial lines, while the three global credit insurers reported average combined ratios of 75% in 2024.

High underwriting standards helped contain volatility despite macro uncertainty, with no material deterioration in claims during 2025, supported by restructuring around sovereign defaults, Russia-Ukraine war payments and isolated private credit events.

Marius Fischer, managing director, reinsurance broking credit and financial risk, Howden Re, commented: “Looking into 2026, the CPRI market is expected to continue along a path of gradual and selective softening, driven by strong competition for more standardised risks but underpinned by resilient demand from banks and corporates seeking capital relief and balance sheet protection.”

The broker said pricing declines of 10-20 points from post-Covid highs were recorded for more standardised risks, while reinsurance renewals at 1st January 2026 saw moderate increases in ceding commissions on quota-share business.

On the risks horizon, a shortage of experienced underwriting talent is emerging as a key challenge for the sector.

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