Vehicle ramming attacks are on the rise globally, and the risk of a mass-casualty incident remains high, even though average fatalities per attack have increased only slightly.

A stark illustration of the threat came on Sunday in Grand Blanc Township, Michigan, where at least five people were killed and eight others wounded after a gunman rammed a vehicle into a church, began shooting, and set a fire in an attack that remains under investigation.

New analysis from the Mineta Transportation Institute identified 27 attacks worldwide between November 2024 and July 2025, claiming 76 lives during that nine-month period alone. While the number of incidents is climbing, particularly in advanced economies, lethality has risen only modestly. Researchers say this is largely because no attack has matched the scale of the 2016 Bastille Day massacre in Nice, where 86 people were killed in a single night.

The study, Update on Vehicle Rammings: Attackers, Frequency, Lethality, and Mitigation Measures, examines patterns in OECD countries, drawing on data stretching back to 2013, three years before jihadist vehicle attacks began to surge in Europe. It finds that the US has recorded the highest number of incidents since 2012, followed by Israel and the Palestinian Territories, China, the UK and France. China has experienced the most fatalities, ahead of France, the US and Germany.

“Vehicle rammings remain one of the most accessible and brutal forms of attack, and our data shows incidents are rising,” says report co-author Brian Michael Jenkins. “Fatalities, however, have not increased at the same pace – likely reflecting stronger protective measures at public events and the absence, so far, of another ultra-high-casualty incident like Nice. But that could change overnight if a well-planned attack used a large rented truck moving at high speeds through an inadequately protected crowd.”

The report highlights a shift in attacker motives in advanced economies. Non-ideological rammings linked to personal grievances or mental health crises are increasing, while ideologically motivated attacks remain stable overall but have risen in the US. The authors also point to a contagion effect, noting that incidents tend to occur in clusters and inspire copycats, though not yet on the scale seen during the peak of aircraft hijackings in the 1960s and early 1970s.

It reviews recent high-profile cases, including the January 2025 attack in New Orleans – the deadliest vehicle ramming in US history, which killed 14 people – and the May 2025 Liverpool attack, where more than 50 were injured but none killed.

Co-author Bruce Butterworth stresses that physical security remains critical to prevention. “Preventing vehicle access to areas where large numbers of people are gathered, particularly in a well-publicised event such as a protest, march or celebration, is effective. Checks on who rents large vehicles can also contribute to security but can be difficult to do.”

While stronger defences have helped limit fatalities, the report warns that the absence of a recent mass-casualty attack should not be mistaken for reduced risk. A single, well-planned operation could have devastating consequences.


The MTI report can be viewed in full at https://transweb.sjsu.edu/sites/default/files/2557-Vehicle-Ramming.pdf

Graph: Ramming attacks and fatalities – Group 1 – 2013-2025 (Source: MTI)

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