Forecasters at the NOAA’s US National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – which runs from 1 June until 30 November – predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (categorised as having winds of 39mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to a combination of factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

Ken Graham, NOAA’s national weather service director, said: “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

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