IFoA: Mortality close to pre-pandemic level

Whilst COVID-19 has contributed to a significant number of deaths, overall mortality is similar to the pre-pandemic level for the time of year, according to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ Continuous Mortality Investigation data.

Today’s update covers week 4 of 2022 (22nd to 28th January), based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics on 8th February 2022.

The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 4 of 2022 was 100 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 4 of 2019; equivalent to 1% more deaths than expected. The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 1,385 in week 4 of 2022.

Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “We have now seen 30 consecutive weeks of excess mortality in the UK, the longest run of excess mortality during the pandemic.

“In the second half of 2021, the number of excess deaths was similar to the number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate. However, the picture is very different in weeks 2 to 4 of 2022 – with nearly 5,000 mentions of COVID-19 on UK death certificates, but fewer than 400 excess deaths. This shows that while COVID has contributed to a significant number of deaths, overall mortality is similar to the pre-pandemic level for the time of year.”

There have been around 121,700 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 28 January 2022. Of these, 1,300 have occurred in 2022.

IFoA's statistics can be accessed in full here: https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor

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