2010-09-02
By Editor, CIR
Major Hurricane Earl has re-strengthened to category four status in the last 24 hours as it continues to track north-northwest, threatening portions of the US mid-Atlantic coast. A direct landfall is not forecast by the NHC “best track” at this stage. However, Earl could still bring hurricane force winds to the outer banks of North Carolina as it bypasses within the next 24 hours as a cat 3 hurricane.
According to risk modelling firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), the US east coast is likely to experience tropical storm force winds as the system moves north over the subsequent 24 hours, brushing Cape Cod in 48 hours time – though Earl is forecast to weaken as it heads further north, and could be as low as a category one or category two as it passes Cape Cod and Rhode Island on Saturday morning.
Based on today’s forecast, RMS anticipates nearly US$4bn of exposure lies within the NHC cone of uncertainty over North Carolina.
They said at 09:00 UTC today, the center of Earl was located around 410 miles (660 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and approximately 870 miles (1,400 km) south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/hr) - the equivalent of a category four storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). Earl is a large storm with hurricane force winds. Tropical force winds extend outwards up to 90 miles (150km) and 230 miles (370 km) respectively from the center of Earl (predominantly to the northeast and southeast of the system).
RMS forecasts indicate that Earl will turn to the north and then towards the north-northeast within the next 24 hours. The storm is projected to pass approximately 60 miles (97 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina tomorrow morning, Friday, as a category three hurricane, however a slight deviation to the west means that North Carolina and potentially other States to the north could be Earl’s large extent of hurricane force winds.
The NHC have instigated hurricane warnings for Bogue Inley, North Carolina northeastward to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Hurricane warnings and tropical storm force warnings and watches are in effect along the US Mid Atlantic coast.
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