In the first half of this year, natural disasters caused losses estimated at the equivalent of nearly £83bn worldwide, just below the 10-year average, despite a deadly earthquake in Venezuela, record-breaking heatwaves and growing concerns over a looming Super El Niño. According to Munich Re, insured losses totalled £33bn, leaving an insurance protection gap of 60%.

The deadliest event of the year so far was a double earthquake that struck Venezuela on 24 June. Two powerful earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude hit within minutes west of Caracas, killing thousands of people. Preliminary estimates put economic losses at around £22bn, although less than £740m is expected to be insured.

Over the period, extreme heat dominated across much of Europe and North America, with scientists describing many temperatures as "record-shattering". Germany recorded a new national high of 41.8°C in June. Heatwaves are increasingly recognised as the world's deadliest natural hazard, with their economic impact extending beyond property damage to reduced productivity, infrastructure disruption and agricultural losses.

Looking ahead, Munich Re warned that weather extremes could intensify during the second half of the year as forecasts point to the emergence of a Super El Niño. The climate pattern typically drives higher global temperatures while increasing the risk of droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall and flooding in different parts of the world.

Tobias Grimm, Munich Re's chief climate scientist, commented: "It’s a dangerous mix: as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further. The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year. Taking timely precautions saves lives and limits the economic damage caused by disasters."

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