The US still faces a one-in-four chance of being hit by a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane this year, despite forecasts for a quieter Atlantic storm season, according to MS Amlin.

The insurer estimates there is a 27% probability of at least one Category 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall in the US during the 2026 season, down from 39% a year ago, as strengthening El Nino conditions suppress Atlantic storm activity.

The probability of a major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast has fallen from 19% to 10%, while Florida's risk has eased from 19% to 14%.

Sam Phibbs, head of catastrophe research at MS Amlin, said: “A one-in-four chance of a Category 4 or 5 US hurricane landfall is lower than we were seeing a year ago, but it’s still far from negligible. It only takes one storm to turn a quiet season into a costly one for communities and insurers.

“While El Nino is expected to dampen hurricane activity, its influence is being partly offset by unusually warm tropical Atlantic waters, which are keeping conditions favourable for storms to form and intensify.”

MS Amlin forecasts 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes this season, below long-term averages.

However, it warned that lower storm activity does not necessarily mean lower losses. Last year, no hurricanes made US landfall, yet Hurricane Melissa caused an estimated US$8.8bn of economic damage after intensifying into a Category 5 storm before striking Jamaica.

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