New figures from Atradius show a rise in UK trade credit insurance claims during June, breaking the downward trend seen since the start of 2024. The insurer said the latest data underlines an uneven business recovery, with consumer-linked sectors under renewed pressure while others, including construction and food, show signs of stabilisation.

Claims volumes rose significantly in consumer durables (up 140% year-on-year, and 5% since January), electronics (up 72% year-on-year and 138% year-to-date) and transport (up 41% year-on-year and 35% since January). Engineering also saw claims jump 138% year-on-year, although figures remain 5% below January levels.

James Burgess, head of commercial at Atradius UK, said: “While the rise in claims in June raises a flag, we’re also seeing encouraging signals in sectors like construction and food, which has long been under pressure. This speaks to the adaptability of UK businesses in navigating a complex economic environment.”

The construction and food sectors posted double-digit reductions in claims compared to the start of the year – down 22% and 34% respectively – reflecting more stable trading conditions in parts of the market, even as broader economic indicators remain mixed.

"For many, this is a pivotal moment, as the full impact of US tariff increases remains uncertain and businesses collectively hold their breath ahead of the UK’s Autumn Budget,” Burgess added. “In this climate, those that actively manage credit risk and stay agile in their operations are better positioned to navigate emerging challenges and seize opportunities in a potentially shifting recovery landscape.”

The claims increase comes against a backdrop of persistent inflation, now at 3.6%, and a 4.25% base interest rate. Atradius said high borrowing costs continue to strain margins, especially for SMEs, while supply chain disruption remains a key risk for import-dependent sectors including electronics and transport.

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