Future climate forecast to resemble summer '22 - Met Office

The summer of 2022 was a record-breaking one for UK weather, and is a sign of the changing climate, according to the latest Met Office State of the UK Climate report.

The report highlights how the UK’s climate continues to change, with recent decades warmer, wetter and sunnier than the 20th century, and although the UK has warmed at a broadly consistent rate compared to the observed change in global mean temperature, observations show that in the UK temperature extremes are changing much faster than the average temperature.

A new all-time temperature record of 40.3C was set on 19th July during an unprecedented heatwave at the height of summer, exceeding the previous record by a wide margin.

The Met Office also found both the record warm year and July heatwave were made more likely by human-induced climate change.

The report puts the UK’s observed climate into future context, using the Met Office UKCP18 climate projections, in a medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5), by 2060 a year like 2022 would be considered an average year, by 2100 it would be considered a ‘cool’ year.

The report also includes contributions on sea level rise and ecology from the National Oceanography Centre and Woodland Trust, and notes that since the 1900s, the sea level around the UK has risen by around 185mm, with roughly 114mm of that over the past 30 years (1993-2022). The rate in which the sea level is rising is also increasing, from 1.5 ± 0.1 mm per year since the 1900s to 3.8 ± 0.9 mm per year between 1993-2022.

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