Two years ago, risk forecasters were talking about the risks on our horizon with a focus on biohazards, cyber crime and space conflict. Little did we know then that the next battle between nations would involve the use of tanks and street fighting more associated with conflicts decades ago.

It is clear, then, that we must constantly scan the horizon, not to make predictions, but to systematically investigate the evidence about future trends – and we cannot make assumptions that the future is all about progress – on occasion, developments will occur that could display characteristics of the past.

After the pandemic, global expectations and energy levels were high and the mood for international cooperation was optimistic. There was an expectation that people and societies would be re-energised after the years of restrictions and that a surge in the development and use of technology would create opportunities to thrive. The future now feels less secure and settled than expected and optimism is more restrained. Taking decisions in such an uncertain and fragmented world is more difficult. The free flow of ideas, people, goods, services and capital across national borders leads to greater economic integration. But globalisation and the trend toward these things moving more freely between nations, has seen ebbs and flows.

Whatever the mode of war, events in Ukraine have created a sudden shift of the geopolitical tectonic plates. Underlying fault lines have risen to the surface, highlighting a world with very different economic and political systems.

Many in the current employment pool have only lived in a period of relative peace, global stability and global trading. The risk landscape has now been changed by more risks occurring and new and different risks emerging. With an escalating velocity in change and an increase in the complexity and connectivity between risks, we now find that risks considered beyond the horizon have arrived sooner than expected.

Business leaders need to look further over the horizon but not become frozen into inaction by what they find, but to take time to assess the velocity, nature and impact of change heading their way. While understanding these dynamics will not solve anything, achieving greater clarity about risks and their potential effects will make it easier to create appropriate interventions and to build a more resilient business and society – and to take decisions.

Geopolitical risks touch every part of an organisation and managing them is a team activity which demands collaboration. The availability of information on geopolitics is not a problem – key is being able to find and use the information. Geopolitical risk is something we have been living with for a long time and whilst the tools, techniques and skills for us to tackle geopolitical risk may need some adaptation for the present, it is more a question of enhancement than reinvention.

We need to be prepared for a permanent state of crisis rather than an ebb and flow of change and help to synchronise business reactions with external realities. Rigidity has no place today in any risk management and internal control framework, including the creation and management of risk registers. We must be agile and responsive to the pace and nature of change and continuously consider adjustments to reflect purpose, culture and risk appetite.

They must operate a feedback loop and have the courage to step up with informed and timely recommendations, where there are signals indicating they should do so. In late 2022, McKinsey and Company reported that geopolitical risk was at the top of the CEO agenda: “In the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience.” Geopolitical risk is becoming far higher in profile on the risk radar of most businesses and is a board agenda item – and, according to our research conducted in partnership with the Chartered Institute of Internal Auditors, one that demands a collaborative response from risk and internal audit professionals.

Businesses must monitor and navigate the short-term risk outlook and scenario plan for the long-term view, whilst keeping an eye on strategic opportunities that can emerge from volatility. Building resilience is imperative.

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