Aon expands storm models coverage

Aon has updated its Impact Forecasting Europe Windstorm and Severe Convective Storm catastrophe models to incorporate emissions scenarios that inform current and future projections of climate and storm activity across the continent.

The windstorm model now covers 22 countries, having been expanded to include Iberia, the Baltics, Hungary and Switzerland, where windstorm events have not traditonally been well modelled.

The SCS model allowing flexible hours clause application to the results now covers 12 countries, expanding to Slovakia, Hungary and Italy.

The updated models allow clients to more comprehensively forecast their European exposures to assist with portfolio management and capital allocation and help fulfil ESG requirements.

Adam Podlaha, head of Impact Forecasting said: “For more than 10 years, our European windstorm models have been helping re/insurers and corporations to quantify and assess their exposures, in order to make better business decisions as regards insurance premium calculation, reinsurance purchase, capital requirements and claims handling. In this geographical expansion of the windstorm model, the vulnerability component is the main feature of the update.

"Based on five seasons of loss forecasting, the team has improved the damage functions to better reflect losses caused by smaller to medium storms. In addition, more residential classes have been added to better align to insurers’ data. Finally, introducing Open Exposure Data classes to the model in both ELEMENTS- and Oasis-based platforms, aligns it to client and market requirements.”

Windstorm has been a major historical peril for European insurers and reinsurers, with average annual losses totalling US$3.3bn, according to Aon’s Catastrophe Insight data.

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