IFoA: Q3/22 mortality in UK 9pc up on pre-pandemic levels

Mortality in the third quarter of 2022 was 9% higher than in the same quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, and higher than in any third quarter since 2010. This contrasts with the first half of 2022, which had similar mortality to 2019.

This is among the findings of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ Continuous Mortality Investigation data, which shows that there were 12,700 more deaths than expected from all causes in the UK in the third quarter of 2022.

There were 7,300 deaths in the UK with Covid -19 mentioned on the death certificate during that period. There have been around 137,800 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 30 September 2022.

This update covers week 39 of 2022 (23rd to 30th September), and is based on provisional England and Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics on 11th October 2022.

Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The third quarter of 2022 saw unusually high mortality for the time of year – higher than any third quarter since 2010.

“Deaths with Covid on the death certificate only account for around 60% of the excess deaths seen during the quarter, so there were more deaths than expected from non- Covid causes. This contrasts with most of the pandemic period, when non-Covid deaths were lower than expected.

“Data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities suggests that increased deaths from heart and circulatory diseases have contributed to the excess seen in the third quarter. While heatwaves led to short-term increases in deaths, analysis by the ONS shows that their impact was not the primary cause of excess mortality over the quarter as a whole.”

The next CMI report, covering data up to the end of 2022, is expected in January 2023.

According to UK Government data, the number of people testing positive for Covid-19 in England rose 21.8pc in the week to 1st October 2022.

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