Aon’s Impact Forecasting catastrophe model for severe convective storm is to be enhanced to incorporate the latest climate science.

Gained from a collaboration with academic researchers Dr Robert Trapp from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Dr John Allen from Central Michigan University, the new data will inform the SCS model’s computational analysis around frequency, severity and geographic distribution in respect of hail, tornadoes and straight-line winds, enabling the model to incorporate more accurate, future-focused risk quantification functionality.

Speaking of the initiative, Dr Eric Robinson, a director and meteorologist for Aon’s Impact Forecasting team, said: “Dr Trapp’s and Dr Allen’s work in the field of climate change and severe convective weather represent a culmination of nearly 30 years of severe storms research. Their insight and expertise are essential in tackling a peril like this, where hazard uncertainty and small footprint sizes require a careful and experienced approach. This collaboration represents the best that academia and private industry has to offer, resulting in a more insightful, robust, and useful offering than either could produce independently.

“Our work together goes well beyond a simple resampling of historical events or an in-house view of risk based on an interpretation of the academic literature, and instead takes a first principles approach to derive a view of risk directly from the source – the academic experts at the leading edge of climate science. This collaboration brings together the very best from the insurance and academic worlds to take a fresh look at the problem and develop a view of risk that is both robust and useful to risk managers.”

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