Map shows shift in terrorism threat
Aon's latest Terrorism Threat Map indicates
South Asia has become more hazardous
The threat of Islamist terrorist activity
appears to have shifted from the Middle East to South
Asia, reports Aon.
The broker's Aon Crisis Management unit has just issued
its Aon 2009 Terrorism Threat Map, reflecting
fewer terrorist attacks in the Middle East but increased
activity in Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, with Thailand
and Nepal also showing higher levels of activity.
Another key trend from this year's analysis is the
re-emergence of terrorist groups with more traditional
ideological leanings. ''Our analysis shows the re-emergence
of groups like the communist Shining Path in Peru and
a revolutionary anarchist movement in Greece,'' says
Craig Preston, executive director at Aon.
''In a global recession it is not inconceivable that
a new generation of terrorists will emerge from disaffected
communities in a re-emergence of class-based politics.
This raises the prospect of new terrorist groups forming
in the developed world on the far right and far left
of the ideological spectrum. With the election of a
more liberal President in the US, it is possible we
may see an uplift in activity from domestic far right
and militia groups.''
The 2009 Map also shows a more settled outlook for
North America, Europe and Australia. "Although
the prospect of a major terrorist attack in a Western
country is ever present, and there are signs of more
sophisticated plots, we have noted that in recent years
such attacks have not come to pass," says Preston.
''While evidence of plots emerges from time to time,
there is often a protracted timeframe between them,
and we are unlikely to see the frequency of attacks
in Western countries that we might have expected a few
years ago. We attribute this to better counter-terrorism
capability and some shift of focus among terrorist groups
towards establishing new fronts in places like Pakistan
and Somalia.''
Aon says the past year has highlighted the tenacity
of leftist/Maoist activity in India and Nepal. Outside
India little attention is paid to the activities of
the rural conflict in the north east part of the country
but Maoist terrorists have become amongst the most prolific
in the world. The recent Indian elections led to a significant
spike in attacks, with 65 terrorist incidents recorded
in April.
A copy of the 2009 Terrorism Threat Map can be requested
from www.aon.com
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