Likely failure to agree a new cabinet will increase unrest and trigger army imposition of a technocrat government and fresh elections, according to risk analysts at Exclusive Analysis.

“On 6th February, opposition secular parties withdrew from the Constituent Assembly, in protest at the assassination of Shukri Belid, a member of the National Democrats party. Street protests organised by lawyers, members of the main UGTT union and judges in most Tunisian provinces followed. This combination of protesters led to the fall of President Ben Ali in 2011,” said Firas Abi Ali, the head of MENA Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis.

“On 7th February 2013, Ennahda, the Islamist dominant party in the ruling coalition, said, contrary to the Prime Minister Jebali's stated intention, that it refused to form a technocratic government to govern until elections, set for June 2013, and that instead it would continue to try to form a new, broader coalition cabinet. Such a cabinet is very unlikely to materialise, since none of Ennahda's rivals will want to be seen as close to it in the run-up to elections,” Ali forecast.

In the likely event that there is no agreement, it predicts civil unrest will increase, reaching a level that cannot be contained by the police. “If unrest continued for more than two weeks, the Army would probably reluctantly step in and back a technocrat government, as well as fresh elections for a new Constituent Assembly,” Ali explained.

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