Tropical storm Tomas, this morning located over the north central Caribbean Sea, is forecast to pass to the east of Jamaica and between Haiti and Cuba today and early Friday, during which time the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast it to strengthen to hurricane status.
In a report issued this, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), said there uncertainly surrounding the forecast and its intensity.
“Regardless of the uncertainties in the forecast, Haiti remains vulnerable to even low-level winds,” said Margaret Joseph, catastrophe response analyst at RMS.
“Tomas also poses a significant threat of heavy rain over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. As of this morning, a hurricane warning is in effect for Haiti, the south-eastern Bahamas and The Turks and Caicos Islands, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.”
The NHC reported that as of this morning (UTC), Tomas had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph – the equivalent of a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with winds extending outwards up to 115 miles from the center.
Tomas is forecast to move over very warm waters and within an area of low wind shear – conditions favorable for intensification. The NHC are forecasting the system to strengthen today and to regain hurricane status - which would see the system make its closest pass to Haiti and Cuba as a category 1 hurricane. The NHC calls for Tomas to maintain hurricane status when it is forecast to pass over the Turks and Caicos Islands late on Friday 5 November, but the amount of interaction with land - either in Haiti or Cuba - will be key to determining whether it is a hurricane or weaker storm, according to the report. Beyond 36 hours the system is forecast to weaken.
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