Catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses from Hurricane Sandy to onshore properties in the US will be between US$7 and US$15 billion. AIR estimates include wind and storm surge damage to onshore residential, commercial and industrial properties and their contents, automobiles, and time element coverage (additional living expenses for residential properties and business interruption for commercial properties).

Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone at around 8:00pm on 29th October 2012, 5 miles southwest of Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Dr. Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide commented, “Sandy’s diameter was nearly twice the size of other massive hurricanes including Katrina (2005) whose diameter was 435 miles, Isabel (2003) whose diameter was 575 miles, and Isaac (2012) whose diameter was 450 miles. The huge radius helped to keep the winds at Category 1 intensity, and allowed the storm to interact with the an approaching disturbance in the jet stream that resulted in severe weather across a wide swath of the eastern United States, including blizzard conditions in the higher elevations of the Appalachians.”

Sandy brought New York and other major cities along the Atlantic coast to a halt. A record storm surge (13.88 feet at the Battery in lower Manhattan) produced significant flooding particularly in the low-lying areas near the East River and several towns on the Jersey Shore. The Brooklyn-Battery tunnel and seven subway tunnels under the East River remain flooded, and commuter rail service is suspended, effectively shuttering business in New York City.

Along the entire east coast and well inland, heavy rainfall softened the soils allowing trees to be loosened and topple more easily onto homes, cars and power lines. Sandy also shuttered the nation’s capital. The National Weather Service predicted the worst flooding of that region since 1996. High wind warnings extend across Washington, Virginia, and Maryland, which are all in declared states of emergency.

AIR’s loss estimates reflect:
•Insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, auto), both structures and their contents;
•Additional living expenses for residential claims;
•For commercial lines, insured physical damage to structures and contents, and business interruption directly caused by storm surge, assuming a 10% take-up rate for commercial flood policies; business interruption losses include direct and indirect losses for insured risks that experience physical loss;
•For the automobile line, estimates reflect AIR’s view that insurers will pay 100% of storm surge damage;
•Demand surge.

Loss estimates do not reflect:
•Losses paid out by the National Flood Insurance Program;
•Losses resulting from the compromise of existing defenses (eg., natural and man-made levees);
•Losses from the flooding of tunnels and subways;
•Losses to uninsured properties;
•Losses to infrastructure;
•Low-level losses in states distant to the storm’s center that have resulted from the interaction between Sandy and another frontal system to the west;
•Losses from extra-contractual obligations;
•Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism or civil commotion whether directly or indirectly caused by the event;
•Other non-modeled losses;
•Losses for US offshore assets and non-US property.

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