While it is too soon to say what may yet happen at Fukushima and other nuclear plants in Japan, some consequences are already evident amid the chaos and devastation caused by last week’s earthquake and tsunami.

“Nuclear issues have long been peculiarly resonant in the public mind, especially in Japan, for obvious historical reasons. Moreover Japanese nuclear authorities have an unfortunate track record of downplaying or concealing mishaps, making the media and the public less ready to accept official reassurances,” says Walt Patterson, associate fellow at UK think-tank Chatham House.

At the moment, conditions at Japan's nuclear sites are evolving rapidly; the possibility of much more serious malfunction not yet be discounted. "The additional stress on the population in the affected areas, with a reported 170,000 people thus far evacuated, is compounding the drastically severe traumas caused by the earthquake and tsunami,” says Patterson.

”At least three reactors are being flooded with sea water, effectively writing them off. They will never operate again. In fact Fukushima 1 was due to be shut down later this month. But decommissioning it and the other reactors, and cleaning up the radioactive mess inside them, will be a long, difficult and dangerous task, even assuming no more serious developments ensue. The immediate economic impact will be significant. But the longer-term economic impact may be more profound.”

The implications for energy and electricity policy around the world are as yet unclear. Many may prefer non-nuclear options, he adds. “Assuming no more serious subsequent developments at the Japanese sites, nuclear advocates will insist that the episode demonstrates that even under the most extreme conditions, such as the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, the plants are acceptably safe, and that more recent designs will be yet safer. Whether politicians and the public will concur remains to be seen.”

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