2011-06-10

By Deborah Ritchie

The Asia Forecasting team at Exclusive Analysis believes that there are two high probability election outcome scenarios. Common to both is a high risk of property damage, business disruption and impacts on the business environment.

The first, and most likely scenario, states that a Yellow Shirt-aligned Democrat Party would likely form the next government, probably through the creation of a minority coalition. This event would likely trigger large-scale violent unrest by Red Shirt groups. Risks of property damage and business disruption are likely to be most significant in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Khon Kaen and Udon Thani, but are unlikely to match May 2010 levels. Government buildings, military installations, military-owned businesses, pro-government media outlets and commercial assets associated with government and Yellow Shirt leaders are all likely to be targeted. The commercial real estate target set includes banks, shopping malls, hotels, TV and radio stations and office buildings, the analysts say.

The Asia team believes that in this scenario, the military would likely respond quickly and forcefully to quell protests, with Army Chief Prayuth more willing to use force against protesters than his 2010 predecessor. Arson would likely fall short of May 2010 levels, as an increased security presence would prevent protesters from gaining control of whole areas in central Bangkok. Finally, the Internal Security Act is likely to be imposed for three to six months.

In the second scenario, the Red Shirt-aligned Puea Thai forms a coalition government. The election result prompts Yellow Shirt protests, which pose risks of property damage, primarily to government assets in Bangkok, though on a far smaller level than in Scenario One. Legal cases against the Puea Thai-led government are soon brought to the Constitutional Court and the government is dissolved before its term ends. This would likely spark Red Shirt protests, property damage and business disruption along the lines of Scenario One. Yellow Shirt supporters will be increasingly likely to seize transport assets if their protests against a Puea Thai-led government last over a year or Thaksin returns to Thailand. According to EA's Asia team, this is more likely to result in cargo disruption than property damage.

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