Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide reports that Hurricane Ernesto continues toward a landfall tonight near Chetumal, the capital of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo on the Yucatan Peninsula near the border with Belize. Air Force Hurricane Hunters discovered today that the storm has continued to strengthen, and based on their findings, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially designated Ernesto a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The NHC’s Advisory places Ernesto about 185 miles east of Chetumal. It is moving toward the west-northwest at about 14 mph. The storm’s maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts. Deep convection developed within Ernesto late last night and expanded for several hours, then leveled off. The storm afterwards maintained a moderate-to-strong tropical storm intensity until this morning, when it continued to strengthen. Ernesto’s hurricane-force winds extend outward from its center up to 25 miles, while its storm-force winds extend up to 140 miles.

“After landfall, Ernesto will weaken rapidly as it interacts with the Yucatan Peninsula and, sometime tomorrow, turn toward the west,” said Dr. Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. “Its strongest winds will be to the right of its landfall location - over the sparsely populated tropical jungle region of Yucatan north of Belize. This area is far south of the tourist centers of Cozumel and Playa del Carmen, which should remain outside the reach of even tropical storm-force winds. Thus, at present, wind impacts from Ernesto are not expected to be significant. Similarly, flooding is not anticipated to be widespread because Ernesto’s forward movement is expected to remain steady, rainfall rates will be moderate, and there are no major topographical features in the area to force locally heavier amounts of precipitation or channel unexpected rainfall accumulations.”

“Residential properties in the border region of Belize and Quintana Roo where Ernesto is expected to make landfall are commonly constructed of masonry or wood, and poor construction practices, such as the use of tin roof coverings, can lead to significant damage even in relatively low wind speed conditions. Well-constructed homes normally receive relatively little damage from tropical storm-force winds. In Mexico, most insured residential structures are made of confined masonry, which performs better than plain masonry under lateral wind loads because of its use of bond beams and columns. However, a large percentage of houses built every year in Mexico are constructed without a building permit, perhaps as large as 50%.”

According to AIR, the current forecast calls for Ernesto to pass over Yucatan and emerge over the Bay of Campeche tomorrow afternoon. Its time over the warm Gulf waters is expected to be short and it is not forecast to regain hurricane intensity before making a second landfall probably Friday morning.

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