Hurricane Earl has weakened to category two strength. Despite being a major hurricane, North Carolina was spared Earl’s hurricane force winds. Modelling firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), says initial reports suggest that there has been some minor damage on the Outer Banks such as broken windows, stripped siding and damaged shingles but there are no reports of widespread property damage, power outages, flooding or fallen trees at this stage.
In the next 12-24 hours Earl’s forward speed is likely to increase further and it is expected to take a turn to the northeast. On this forecast track, Earl will approach southeastern New England on Friday night/Saturday morning. The NHC official track has Earl tracking approximately 55 miles offshore Cape Code in 24 hours and falls to the left hand side of the operational model guidance, i.e. suggesting a worst case scenario.
RMS added that as Earl continues to track northeast it will encounter increasing amounts of wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures (less than 27 C north of Cape Hatteras). These adverse environmental factors will cause Earl to weaken and the NHC is suggesting that Earl will be a category one hurricane when it bypasses Cape Cod.
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