May 1 saw countless spontaneous celebrations in front of the White House and elsewhere across the US following the reported killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, some ten years after the events of 9/11.

In his subsequent ten minute speech, President Obama began to consider the consequences of what might happen next. “There's no doubt that Al-Qaeda will continue to pursue attacks against us,” he said. “We must - and we will - remain vigilant at home and abroad.”

The threat, indeed, remains. “Osama bin Laden's death provides a marker in the 'war on terror', but it is not the end, says Xenia Dormandy, a senior fellow at think-tank Chatham House."

"He represented the head of al Qaeda, but cutting it off could result in a hydra, a replacement of two new heads, something of which President Obama and his national security team will be well aware. There are fears that this could galvanise al Qaeda and its supporters in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The US government has announced overseas Americans should be particularly vigilant,”

There are also repercussions for Pakistan itself and for the bilateral relationship. "Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani was only told of the operation on Pakistani soil after it took place. The loss of national sovereignty will not go down well amongst Pakistanis who already see America as an enemy. Despite President Obama's efforts, commenting that, 'It is important to note that our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden and the compound where he was hiding,' this too will be another obstacle in the bilateral relationship. And, while bin Laden might be now out of the picture, this relationship is still vital for the war on terror," Dormandy says.

That we have been told that bin Laden was buried at sea has naturally led to doubts among many of his supporters that his death is really true. But the US logic - to prevent there being a shrine created to him - is probably sound, she adds.

Dormandy says it’s too early to say what this means for the US and the war on terror, but stresses that few men are irreplaceable. “The timetable for troops in Afghanistan will stay the same. The threat to the US and the Western world has not changed. That will take a longer, generational, effort to change attitudes, values, and ideology, on the part of all sides. America, particularly Congress, needs to be careful not to roll back its attention and resources in this time of austerity, on continuing to meet this challenge.

An enduring legacy?

Bin Laden's death comes at a time when he had become increasingly sidelined in the wider political arena in the Middle East. Nonetheless, he leaves a legacy of a loose network of fringe radicals intent on using terrorism with no objective other than to terrorise simply as a way of saying that they are there and that they object to what they see in the wider political arena. His followers may never be able to galvanize the Arab or Muslim street in a revolution against the pro-western regimes in the region, as he must have hoped and believed at the start of his campaign. Indeed, the revolution, when it did come in the Middle East, chose non-violence.

Analysts from Exclusive Analysis echo this sentiment, adding that bin Laden had retained an important role as an inspirational figurehead; his communiqués were frequently out of date and in some cases contradicted communiqués from other senior leaders. The firm's Global Jihad Analysis
team says a self-destructive battle for succession within al-Qaeda (which means 'the base' in Arabic) is now likely, adding that that core of al-Qaeda's worldwide network of affiliates has become ever more important in maintaining the group's image of global capability. As the Pakistan-based al-Qaeda leadership is depleted, Yemen's AQAP will likely take a greater role planning al-Qaeda's overseas attacks.

Dr Maha Azzam, associate fellow for the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House adds: “The killing of bin Laden is likely to be seen as a particular victory for the Obama administration, under whose watch this long awaited closure for the wound of 9/11 was delivered to the American people. In many ways, although the 'War on Terror' was presented as a global campaign, it was directed primarily by the US, where public sentiment sought redress for the wounds of 9/11 (both on a personal level for victims' families and on a patriotic level for the perceived wound to national pride). The fight spilled over into Europe, where fear of terrorism emerging from al-Qaeda supporters created tensions with and among Muslim communities in its midst.

“In the short term the security threat is heightened, with likely revenge attacks by groups loosely associated with al-Qaeda either in Western countries, or more likely in Pakistan and Afghanistan. There may even be a slight revival in bin Laden's popularity, if only because of the knee jerk reaction against whatever the US does among a small part of the population in the Muslim world.”

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