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Cat risk modelling analysis identifies most likely climate threats
Written by staff reporter
The impact of climate change is most evident for inland and coastal floods -- both of which will overall see more frequent and more intense floods -- according to analysis from cat risk modelling firm AIR Worldwide. Its latest analysis, released today, examines climate change and its effects on atmospheric perils of relevance to catastrophe modelling and the insurance industry. Projections reveal that the earth is likely to see an increase in the frequency and intensity of most of the other weather phenomena reviewed (severe thunderstorms, wildfires, inland floods, coastal floods).
“Many in the insurance world are paying increased attention to climate change in light of reports of increasing variability of atmospheric perils such as windstorms and floods,” said Dr. Peter Sousounis, assistant vice-president and director of meteorology at AIR Worldwide. “Meanwhile, regulators and rating agencies are beginning to ask companies to disclose how they are incorporating climate risk into their decision-making processes. As a result, clients have asked AIR to keep them apprised of the current state of the science regarding climate change impacts on extreme weather.”
Climate change risk predictions: Key findings (Source: AIR Worldwide)
• The overall number of tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones is likely to decrease, but the frequency and intensity of the most strong to extreme storms (such as tropical cyclones that are Saffir Simpson Scale Categories 4 and 5) are expected to increase.
• Projections reveal that the earth is likely to see an increase in the frequency and intensity of most of the other weather phenomena reviewed (severe thunderstorms, wildfires, inland floods, coastal floods).
• The impact of climate change is most evident for inland and coastal floods, both of which will overall see more frequent and more intense floods.
• There is much greater uncertainty around how climate change will affect strong to extreme events (50- to 250-year return period) compared to the more common weak-to-moderate events (2- to 10-year return period) because existing historical data is insufficient and numerical climate models still do not simulate the most extreme events very well.